Rental market · Murphy, TX · Incorporated city
Murphy, TX: average rent, home values, and rental yield
West South Central · Population 21,188
DatasetCity Market Score, model balanced4,812 of 5,233 tracked U.S. markets rankedgenerated 2026-10-06Latest source releases: Zillow ZHVI/ZORI 2026-08 · Census ACS 5-yr 2024 · Census PEP 2025 · Census BPS 2025 · BLS LAUS 2025 · Redfin 2026-05 · FBI CDE 2025How this is built
A63.9
#411 of 4,812 ranked markets
Overall Score 63.9 · stronger than 91% of ranked markets · top 9%
Confidence 88/100 · 2 of 13 factors imputed
On the ranked lists: one of 1,079 most stable markets. List pages show the top 100.
Grade A: the biggest single drag is Growth, 57.9 of 100 at 35% of the score, which is 43% of the distance to a perfect 100. See the arithmetic
Why this market does or does not qualify
Overall City Market Score rank #411 of 4,812. It does not enter the Buy & Hold shortlist under the baseline screen. Why rank and cash flow can disagree
Investor-entry estimate$462,812
Modeled rent$3,033/mo
20% down · base cash flow−$920/mo
25% down · rent stress to base−$1,000/mo to −$770/mo
Hold Coverage · 20% / 25%0.63 / 0.67
Conditional price ceiling · 25%$313,828
Required rent at entry estimate$4,473/mo
Limiting requirementCash flow is not positive after reserves at 25% down
Price × rent decision grid · 25% down
Change the two inputs that usually decide the deal. Green cells clear the three financial requirements before the separate quality and data gates.
| Monthly cash flow / Hold Coverage | 10% below entry$416,531 | Entry estimate$462,812 | 10% above entry$509,093 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10% higher rent$3,336/mo | −$220/moHC 0.89 · does not clear | −$530/moHC 0.77 · does not clear | −$850/moHC 0.67 · does not clear |
| Modeled rent$3,033/mo | −$460/moHC 0.78 · does not clear | −$770/moHC 0.67 · does not clear | −$1,080/moHC 0.57 · does not clear |
| 10% lower rent$2,730/mo | −$690/moHC 0.67 · does not clear | −$1,000/moHC 0.57 · does not clear | −$1,310/moHC 0.48 · does not clear |
Expense waterfall · base case
Monthly, rounded to $10. NOI excludes CapEx and debt service.
- Scheduled rent+$3,030/mo
- Vacancy allowance−$150/mo
- Management−$230/mo
- Maintenance−$150/mo
- Property tax−$610/mo
- Insurance allowance−$190/mo
- NOI+$1,690/mo
- CapEx reserve−$150/mo
- Debt service−$2,310/mo
- Cash flow−$770/mo
Base−$770/mo · HC 0.67Rent stress−$1,000/mo · rent −10%Insurance-expense stress−$1,150/mo · allowance 1.5%
Two supported strengths
Cash Flow 71/100 and Stability 63/100.
Weakest measured signal
Growth is the weakest category at 58/100.
Primary evidenced risk: rent growth is the weakest measured factor (3rd national percentile). Data caveat: price is Zillow Bottom-Tier ZHVI (5th–35th percentile); rent is ZORI asking rent and is not bedroom- or property-matched. Insurance is a 0.5% annual allowance, not a quote.
Scenario buy-hold-v1-2026-09-19: 7% fixed financing for 30 years; 20% and 25% down; 5% vacancy; 8% management on collected rent; 5% maintenance and 5% CapEx on scheduled rent; measured local property tax; 3% closing costs. Qualification also requires positive cash flow, Hold Coverage at least 1.10, nonnegative cash flow after 10% lower rent, and the existing quality and data gates.
Property verification checklist
- Confirm achievable rent with bedroom-matched comps, current listings, and any existing lease.
- Use the parcel’s actual tax bill and reassessment rules.
- Obtain a landlord insurance quote, including wind, flood, or named-storm coverage where relevant.
- Inspect roof, structure, mechanicals, deferred maintenance, and immediate capital needs.
- Verify utilities, HOA, licensing, inspection, registration, and local rental rules.
- Replace the modeled loan with a current lender quote, points, closing costs, and reserve requirements.
Why this grade
Overall 63.9 is a weighted geometric mean of the three category scores. Because they are multiplied rather than averaged, their distances from a perfect 100 combine as an exact identity, and each category's share of that distance is the arithmetic below, not an estimate. Growth carries 43% of it, which is what makes it the binding constraint on this grade.
Cash Flow · 35% weight
71.2 / 100
27% of the shortfall
Growth · 35% weight
57.9 / 100
43% of the shortfall
Stability · 30% weight
63.2 / 100
31% of the shortfall
Inside Growth, the shortfall splits over the factors the model scored here, exactly, in proportion to their published weights. The largest component is population growth (weight 12 of the category's 35, 36th national percentile, 52% of the category's own shortfall); next is rent growth (weight 4 of the category's 35, 3rd national percentile, 26% of the category's own shortfall).
What this is not. It is not a claim that a different value on any one factor would produce a different score or a different grade. Every factor is scored as a national percentile and the grade is a percentile cut against the other 4,812 ranked markets, so this market's position moves only relative to all of them, never on its own. No factor was dropped for this market. 2 of the 13 factors were imputed (rent growth, rental vacancy): the model had no city input of the kind it scores, so it used a reference median instead of a measurement (the same county, or the same state and population band; a national median for a yield cost input), and the factor table marks each one as a fallback.
How Murphy ranks nationally
Each row places Murphy among all 4,812 ranked U.S. markets: the marker is this city, the centre tick is the national median, and the bar runs from one to the other. Further right is better for an investor; inverted measures (crime, vacancy, price-to-income) are already flipped.
Overall Scorethe flagship rank
63.991st percentile
Cash Flowyield & affordability
7176th percentile
Growthpopulation, jobs, income
5865th percentile
Stabilitycrime, vacancy, unemployment
6380th percentile
Expense-adjusted yield3.3% net of costs
6464th percentile
Affordabilityprice-to-income 3.2×
83more affordable than 83%
Violent crime38 /100k/yr
98safer than 98%
Population growth0.1%/yr (capped)
3636th percentile
Job growth3.9%/yr (capped)
9898th percentile
What a deal looks like here
A market-level buy-box for Murphy, built from this market's own numbers: the investor-entry price, its rent, and local carrying costs. The market grade is a quality screen; the deal verdict below is this financing scenario only. An illustrative scenario, not a listing.
Target buy price
$462,812
Expected rent
$3,033 /mo
Rent-to-price
0.66%
Cap rate
4.4%
Cash-on-cash
-7.1% at 25% dn
NOI-based DSCR
0.73
Hold Coverage
0.67 after CapEx reserve
Does not meet screen. At 25% down, named scenarios span −$1,000 to −$770/mo after reserves (10% lower-rent stress to base case). This range is not a confidence interval.
Buy target = Zillow Bottom-Tier ZHVI (5th–35th percentile) $462,812; typical home value $564,016. Rent = Zillow ZORI typical asking rent. Assumptions: 25% down, 7% / 30-yr, 5% vacancy, 8% management on collected rent, 5% maintenance, 5% CapEx reserve excluded from NOI and subtracted from cash flow, 0.5% insurance, 1.59% property tax. Illustrative market-level scenario: not a listing, appraisal, recommendation, or underwriting decision. Zillow price and rent as of 2026-08-31; dataset generated 2026-10-06.
Market Negotiation Leverage
Balanced (57th percentile among 6,196 cities with Redfin coverage)
Equal-weight composite of three Redfin signals’ national percentiles (days on market 37, months of supply 3.1, sale-to-list 98.4%), direction-adjusted so a higher percentile always means more room for a buyer to negotiate. This is a cross-sectional snapshot against every other tracked city today, not a seasonal or historical baseline for this specific city (no multi-year time series is committed for this data). Not a prediction of what any specific seller will accept. Source: Redfin Data Center. See how this is calculated.
Measured market data
Measured observations for Murphy, shown as context beside the market score (none of it feeds the score), and the model weights are unchanged. These are different measurements from the Census figures in the factor table: the ACS median value is what owners report in a 5-year survey, while ZHVI is a monthly index of typical value; ACS median gross rent is what sitting tenants pay including utilities, while ZORI indexes asking rent on newly listed units. Neither corrects the other. Monthly series, revised in recent months, observed 2026-07, not live.
17 measured Zillow figurestypical value $573,140 · asking rent $3,014/mo · measured gross yield 6.31% · observed 2026-07Show table
| Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI, mid tier) | $573,140 |
|---|---|
| ZHVI bottom tier (5th–35th pct) | $469,776 |
| ZHVI top tier (65th–95th pct) | $723,191 |
| ZHVI, single-family only | $573,213 |
| Zillow asking-rent index (ZORI) | $3,014/mo |
| Measured gross yield (ZORI × 12 ÷ ZHVI) | 6.31% |
| Market heat index | 45 |
| Median days to pending | 23 |
| Share of listings with a price cut | 39.0% |
| For-sale inventory | 81 |
| New listings | 28 |
| Median list price | $619,117 |
| Measured 3-yr value growth | -2.03%/yr |
| Measured 5-yr value growth | 3.44%/yr |
| ZHVI, 3-bedroom | $438,520 |
| ZHVI, 4-bedroom | $555,287 |
| ZHVI, 5-bedroom | $687,916 |
Source: Zillow Economic Research public research data, observation month 2026-07. Zillow is not affiliated with, and does not endorse, Compounding Estates.
Typical home value $564,016
Median rent $3,033/mo
Population 21,188
Region West South Central
Price & rent history
Home value $235,414 → $564,016 (2000-01–2026-08)
Asking rent: only 5 data points (2026-04 → 2026-08) - too little history to chart honestly.
Source: Zillow ZHVI (home value), quarterly from 2000-01, monthly from 2016-09 to 2026-08. Change the range or hover to read any point. Gaps in the source series are left as gaps - never interpolated.
ZIP markets in Murphy
3 Census ZIP Codes (ZCTAs) officially overlap Murphy by land area · 3 data-eligible for subscores. Overlap is Census land-area share, not a population or address share. Each ZIP Code's overall Rental Investor ZIP Score, grade and canonical national rank are shown below (the two component signals, affordability and rental market, are separate percentiles). There is no city-scoped ZIP rank: city overlap isn't a ranking universe, so only the national rank is shown. These ZIP rankings sit in the ZIP universe only, never mixed with, and not directly comparable to, Murphy's city ranking. Vintage: the Key metric column below is Census ACS 2020–2024 (5-year), the same survey release as the figures used above for Murphy itself; a city and a ZIP Code are different geographies, so the same measure can still show a different number at each level.
3 of 3 overlapping ZIP Code areas, scoredgrade, overall Rental Investor ZIP Score and national rank for each, on a separate model from this page's city scoreShow table
| ZIP Code | Overallgrade · natl rank | Tier · overlap | Affordabilitysignal · natl rank | Rental marketsignal · natl rank | Key metric |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75094Murphy | B 61#2,957 nat | RankedPrimary | 42#13,214 of 20,132 · bottom 34% | 37#15,279 of 20,132 · bottom 24% | 6.2%Survey yield |
| 75082Richardson | A 66#1,418 nat | Ranked0.3% overlap | 25#18,552 of 20,132 · bottom 8% | 68#2,517 of 20,132 · top 13% | 4.6%Survey yield |
| 75048Sachse | B 58#4,635 nat | Ranked0.1% overlap | 31#17,141 of 20,132 · bottom 15% | 23#18,087 of 20,132 · bottom 10% | 5.2%Survey yield |
The honest read
Murphy scores 64/100 overall (grade A): 71 for Cash Flow, 58 for Growth, and 63 for Stability, each a 0–100 score built from the factors in that category. The scenario above shows what a representative investor-entry purchase pencils out to at today's rates. Everything we can measure is in the table below, with its source.
Every factor, shown
The Overall score blends three category scores built from thirteen factors: Cash Flow (35%), Growth (35%), and Stability (30%). The tag on each percentile names the category a scored factor feeds; untagged rows are context, not scored. Each band chip restates that row's percentile in words. Every value carries its source and as-of date; a fallback source or imputed value is marked fallback. How the score works.
| Factor | Value | National percentile | Source · as-of | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense-adjusted yield | 3.3% | Above median64th percentile · Cash Flow | Zillow ZORI/ZHVI · 2026-08-31 | Annual rent divided by price, net of a modeled vacancy, tax, capex, and management allowance: the core of the Cash Flow category and what the score is actually computed from. The unadjusted gross yield is shown elsewhere on this page. |
| Price to income | 3.2x | Top quartile83rd percentile · Cash Flow | Zillow + ACS income · 2026-08-31 | Home price over local median income. Lower is cheaper relative to what people earn. Part of the Cash Flow category. |
| Population growth | 0.1%/yr | Below median36th percentile · Growth | Census PEP · Census PEP 2020→2025 (vintage 2025) + Census PEP 2015→2025 (vintages 2019+2025) | Census population trend for the place, capped at 4.5%/yr before scoring (diminishing returns above that rate): the heaviest factor in the Growth category. |
| Job growth | 3.9%/yr | Top 10%98th percentile · Growth | BLS LAUS (county) · BLS LAUS county annual 2019→2025 (pre-COVID anchor; 2025 is an 11-month average) + BLS LAUS county annual 2015→2025 | County employment trend, capped at 4.0%/yr before scoring (diminishing returns above that rate). A Growth-category factor. |
| Income growth | 6.8%/yr | Top quartile79th percentile · Growth | Census ACS · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Local median-income trend. A Growth-category factor. |
| Rent growth fallback | 1.2%/yr | Bottom 10%3rd percentile · Growth | Model cohort median (eligible county or state/population cohort); no city-specific observation. Published 2026-10-06 | A 40/60 blend of 3-year and 10-year rent trend (the model's own weighting). A Growth-category factor. |
| Home-value growth | 2.0%/yr | Bottom 10%7th percentile · Growth | Zillow ZHVI · 3yr + 10yr to 2026-08-31 | A 40/60 blend of 3-year and 10-year price trend (the model's own weighting). A small Growth-category factor. |
| Violent crime | 38 /100k/yr | Top 10%98th percentile · Stability | FBI Crime Data Explorer · 2025 | Reported violent crimes per 100,000 residents a year (the FBI's monthly agency rates, times 12), from the municipal police department. Scored in Stability (weight 10 of its 30). City-level data cannot resolve within-neighborhood risk. |
| Property crime | 554 /100k/yr | Top 10%95th percentile · Stability | FBI Crime Data Explorer · 2025 | Reported property crimes per 100,000 residents a year. Scored in Stability (weight 3 of its 30). |
| Unemployment | 3.9% | Above median61st percentile · Stability | BLS LAUS (county) · BLS LAUS county annual 2025 (11-month average) | County unemployment rate. Lower is steadier, a Stability-category factor. |
| Rental vacancy fallback | 6.9% | Below median29th percentile · Stability | Model cohort median (eligible county or state/population cohort); no city-specific observation. Published 2026-10-06 | Share of rentals empty. Lower means more pricing power. A Stability-category factor. |
| Property tax rate | 1.6% | Bottom quartile23rd percentile · Stability | Census ACS B25103/B25077 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Median tax over median value. A direct drag on cash flow, scored in the Stability category as carrying-cost burden. |
| Months of supply | 3.1 mo | Below median46th percentile · Stability | Redfin Data Center · 2026-05-01 | Listings over sales pace. Under about 4 is a seller market, over 6 a buyer market. A Stability-category factor. |
| Days on market | 37 days | Above median55th percentile | Redfin Data Center · 2026-05-01 | How fast homes sell. Lower means more liquidity and an easier exit. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 98.4% | Below median35th percentile | Redfin Data Center · 2026-05-01 | Sale price over asking. Above 100% means homes clear over ask. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Net domestic migration | +18.6/1k | Top 10%95th percentile | Census PEP (county) · PEP vintage 2025 | Net people moving in or out of the county, per 1,000 residents. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Building permits | 49.5/1k | Bottom 10%7th percentile | Census BPS (county) · BPS 2025 | New-construction permits per 1,000 homes. More means more supply coming. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Rent burden | 50% or more | Bottom 10%at or below the 2nd percentile | Census ACS B25071 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Median rent as a share of income. Higher means less headroom for increases. Shown for context, not scored. The Census publishes this median only as "50% or more", so its national percentile is the range a tie at the code allows: 48 other ranked cities carry the same code. |
| Median year built | 2005 | Top 10%96th percentile | Census ACS B25035 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Age of the housing stock. Older stock carries more capex. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Max drawdown | 9% | Top quartile79th percentile | Zillow ZHVI · 2026-08-31 | Worst peak-to-trough home-value decline on record. Shown for context, not scored. |
- * Job growth and unemployment are county-level (BLS LAUS, county FIPS 48085); large multi-county cities inherit their dominant county’s figures.
- The Census Bureau publishes this city's median gross rent as a share of income only as "50% or more" (ACS table B25071): an open-ended range, not an estimate, which the data carries as the code 51%. This page shows it as "50% or more", and its national percentile only as the range a tie at the code allows.
- Data flag: rentGrowth: ACS CAGR fallback. The score does not use a city figure for this factor: it uses the model cohort median shown in the factor table.
- Data flag: rentalVacancy: missing. The score does not use a city figure for this factor: it uses the model cohort median shown in the factor table.
Where to go next from Murphy
Every link below is this market's own data taken one step further: its neighbours in the ranking, the same numbers side by side, or the same numbers in a calculator you can change.
Nearby in the Texas rankings, and national look-alikes
- Cameron, TXGrade A · score 65/100 · yield 9.2% · $253,163 · #369 nationalZillow ZHVI $146k (2009) to $253k (2026), +74%
- Lago Vista, TXGrade A · score 64/100 · yield 5.8% · $395,358 · #408 nationalZillow ZHVI $183k (2000) to $395k (2026), +116%
- Argyle, TXGrade A · score 64/100 · yield 6.5% · $596,292 · #417 nationalZillow ZHVI $199k (2000) to $596k (2026), +199%
- Wylie, TXGrade A · score 64/100 · yield 5.6% · $412,915 · #422 nationalZillow ZHVI $161k (2000) to $413k (2026), +157%
- Concord, NCGrade A · score 64/100 · yield 5.7% · $380,870 · #412 nationalZillow ZHVI $149k (2000) to $381k (2026), +156%
- Travelers Rest, SCGrade A · score 64/100 · yield 6.2% · $354,195 · #410 nationalZillow ZHVI $142k (2002) to $354k (2026), +150%
- Altus, OKGrade A · score 64/100 · yield 11.2% · $108,969 · #415 nationalZillow ZHVI $63k (2000) to $109k (2026), +74%
Compare Murphy head to head
- Murphy vs Cameron vs ConcordThe pre-filled matchup: nearest in-state rank and closest national grade.
- Murphy vs Lago Vista, TXGrade A · yield 5.8%
- Murphy vs Travelers Rest, SCGrade A · yield 6.2%
- Pick your own opponentAny of the 5,233 tracked cities.
Underwrite a Murphy deal
- Cap rateOpens on Murphy's own entry price and rent. Change either one.
- Cash flow & DSCRMonthly cash flow and DSCR, prefilled with this market's numbers.
- Mortgage paymentP&I on Murphy's entry price at the assumptions shown above.
- All marketsCompare Murphy against 4,812 ranked cities.
- Texas ZIP CodesEvery Texas ZIP Code area (Census ZCTAs), scored separately from the city rankings.
- Ranked listsSix lists, each with a disclosed entry rule.
Ranked lists: Highest yield · Cheapest vs. income · Rent covers the mortgage · Under $200k · Fastest-growing · Most stable
For learning, not advice. A market screen from public data - not a forecast, not underwriting, not a recommendation to buy anywhere.