Rental market · Buffalo, NY · Incorporated city
Buffalo, NY: average rent, home values, and rental yield
Middle Atlantic · Population 276,854
DatasetCity Market Score, model balanced4,812 of 5,233 tracked U.S. markets rankedgenerated 2026-10-06Latest source releases: Zillow ZHVI/ZORI 2026-08 · Census ACS 5-yr 2024 · Census PEP 2025 · Census BPS 2025 · BLS LAUS 2025 · Redfin 2026-05 · FBI CDE 2025How this is built
C44.5
#2,791 of 4,812 ranked markets
Overall Score 44.5 · stronger than 42% of ranked markets
Confidence 100/100 · every scored factor measured directly, none imputed
Grade C: the biggest single drag is Stability, 31.5 of 100 at 30% of the score, which is 43% of the distance to a perfect 100. See the arithmetic
Why this market does or does not qualify
Overall City Market Score rank #2,791 of 4,812. It does not enter the Buy & Hold shortlist under the baseline screen. Why rank and cash flow can disagree
Investor-entry estimate$168,997
Modeled rent$1,425/mo
20% down · base cash flow−$10/mo
25% down · rent stress to base−$60/mo to +$50/mo
Hold Coverage · 20% / 25%0.99 / 1.06
Conditional price ceiling · 25%$159,298
Required rent at entry estimate$1,511/mo
Limiting requirementDoes not pass the existing category-quality gate
Price × rent decision grid · 25% down
Change the two inputs that usually decide the deal. Green cells clear the three financial requirements before the separate quality and data gates.
| Monthly cash flow / Hold Coverage | 10% below entry$152,098 | Entry estimate$168,997 | 10% above entry$185,897 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10% higher rent$1,567/mo | +$270/moHC 1.35 · clears financial screen | +$160/moHC 1.19 · clears financial screen | +$50/moHC 1.06 · does not clear |
| Modeled rent$1,425/mo | +$160/moHC 1.20 · clears financial screen | +$50/moHC 1.06 · does not clear | −$60/moHC 0.94 · does not clear |
| 10% lower rent$1,282/mo | +$40/moHC 1.06 · does not clear | −$60/moHC 0.93 · does not clear | −$170/moHC 0.82 · does not clear |
Expense waterfall · base case
Monthly, rounded to $10. NOI excludes CapEx and debt service.
- Scheduled rent+$1,420/mo
- Vacancy allowance−$70/mo
- Management−$110/mo
- Maintenance−$70/mo
- Property tax−$140/mo
- Insurance allowance−$70/mo
- NOI+$960/mo
- CapEx reserve−$70/mo
- Debt service−$840/mo
- Cash flow+$50/mo
Base+$50/mo · HC 1.06Rent stress−$60/mo · rent −10%Insurance-expense stress−$90/mo · allowance 1.5%
Two supported strengths
Cash Flow 54/100 and Growth 50/100.
Weakest measured signal
Stability is the weakest category at 32/100.
Primary evidenced risk: property crime is the weakest measured factor (4th national percentile). Data caveat: price is Zillow Bottom-Tier ZHVI (5th–35th percentile); rent is ZORI asking rent and is not bedroom- or property-matched. Insurance is a 0.5% annual allowance, not a quote.
Scenario buy-hold-v1-2026-09-19: 7% fixed financing for 30 years; 20% and 25% down; 5% vacancy; 8% management on collected rent; 5% maintenance and 5% CapEx on scheduled rent; measured local property tax; 3% closing costs. Qualification also requires positive cash flow, Hold Coverage at least 1.10, nonnegative cash flow after 10% lower rent, and the existing quality and data gates.
Property verification checklist
- Confirm achievable rent with bedroom-matched comps, current listings, and any existing lease.
- Use the parcel’s actual tax bill and reassessment rules.
- Obtain a landlord insurance quote, including wind, flood, or named-storm coverage where relevant.
- Inspect roof, structure, mechanicals, deferred maintenance, and immediate capital needs.
- Verify utilities, HOA, licensing, inspection, registration, and local rental rules.
- Replace the modeled loan with a current lender quote, points, closing costs, and reserve requirements.
Why this grade
Overall 44.5 is a weighted geometric mean of the three category scores. Because they are multiplied rather than averaged, their distances from a perfect 100 combine as an exact identity, and each category's share of that distance is the arithmetic below, not an estimate. Stability carries 43% of it, which is what makes it the binding constraint on this grade.
Cash Flow · 35% weight
53.8 / 100
27% of the shortfall
Growth · 35% weight
49.5 / 100
30% of the shortfall
Stability · 30% weight
31.5 / 100
43% of the shortfall
Inside Stability, the shortfall splits over the factors the model scored here, exactly, in proportion to their published weights. The largest component is violent crime (weight 10 of the category's 30, 4th national percentile, 47% of the category's own shortfall); next is property crime (weight 3 of the category's 30, 4th national percentile, 14% of the category's own shortfall).
What this is not. It is not a claim that a different value on any one factor would produce a different score or a different grade. Every factor is scored as a national percentile and the grade is a percentile cut against the other 4,812 ranked markets, so this market's position moves only relative to all of them, never on its own. All 13 factors were measured for this market, so no category is carrying a gap.
How Buffalo ranks nationally
Each row places Buffalo among all 4,812 ranked U.S. markets: the marker is this city, the centre tick is the national median, and the bar runs from one to the other. Further right is better for an investor; inverted measures (crime, vacancy, price-to-income) are already flipped.
Overall Scorethe flagship rank
44.542nd percentile
Cash Flowyield & affordability
5455th percentile
Growthpopulation, jobs, income
5049th percentile
Stabilitycrime, vacancy, unemployment
3210th percentile
Expense-adjusted yield3.4% net of costs
6565th percentile
Affordabilityprice-to-income 5.0×
34more affordable than 34%
Violent crime729 /100k/yr
4safer than 4%
Rental vacancy4.3% vacant
61tighter than 61%
Population growth0.3%/yr (capped)
4747th percentile
Job growth0.1%/yr (capped)
2828th percentile
What a deal looks like here
A market-level buy-box for Buffalo, built from this market's own numbers: the investor-entry price, its rent, and local carrying costs. The market grade is a quality screen; the deal verdict below is this financing scenario only. An illustrative scenario, not a listing.
Target buy price
$168,997
Expected rent
$1,425 /mo
Rent-to-price
0.84%
Cap rate
6.9%
Cash-on-cash
1.3% at 25% dn
NOI-based DSCR
1.14
Hold Coverage
1.06 after CapEx reserve
Thin margin. At 25% down, named scenarios span −$60 to +$50/mo after reserves (10% lower-rent stress to base case). This range is not a confidence interval.
Buy target = Zillow Bottom-Tier ZHVI (5th–35th percentile) $168,997; typical home value $248,828. Rent = Zillow ZORI typical asking rent. Assumptions: 25% down, 7% / 30-yr, 5% vacancy, 8% management on collected rent, 5% maintenance, 5% CapEx reserve excluded from NOI and subtracted from cash flow, 0.5% insurance, 0.99% property tax. Illustrative market-level scenario: not a listing, appraisal, recommendation, or underwriting decision. Zillow price and rent as of 2026-08-31; dataset generated 2026-10-06.
Market Negotiation Leverage
Balanced (42nd percentile among 6,196 cities with Redfin coverage)
Equal-weight composite of three Redfin signals’ national percentiles (days on market 21, months of supply 4.5, sale-to-list 100.8%), direction-adjusted so a higher percentile always means more room for a buyer to negotiate. This is a cross-sectional snapshot against every other tracked city today, not a seasonal or historical baseline for this specific city (no multi-year time series is committed for this data). Not a prediction of what any specific seller will accept. Source: Redfin Data Center. See how this is calculated.
Measured market data
Measured observations for Buffalo, shown as context beside the market score (none of it feeds the score), and the model weights are unchanged. These are different measurements from the Census figures in the factor table: the ACS median value is what owners report in a 5-year survey, while ZHVI is a monthly index of typical value; ACS median gross rent is what sitting tenants pay including utilities, while ZORI indexes asking rent on newly listed units. Neither corrects the other. Monthly series, revised in recent months, observed 2026-07, not live.
23 measured Zillow figurestypical value $249,040 · asking rent $1,423/mo · measured gross yield 6.86% · observed 2026-07Show table
| Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI, mid tier) | $249,040 |
|---|---|
| ZHVI bottom tier (5th–35th pct) | $166,994 |
| ZHVI top tier (65th–95th pct) | $359,290 |
| ZHVI, single-family only | $249,555 |
| Zillow asking-rent index (ZORI) | $1,423/mo |
| Measured gross yield (ZORI × 12 ÷ ZHVI) | 6.86% |
| Market heat index | 71 |
| Median days to pending | 10 |
| Share of listings with a price cut | 18.0% |
| Median sale-to-list ratio | 103.5% |
| For-sale inventory | 1,009 |
| New listings | 476 |
| Median list price | $227,967 |
| Median sale price | $270,000 |
| Measured 3-yr value growth | 4.67%/yr |
| Measured 5-yr value growth | 5.81%/yr |
| Measured 3-yr rent growth | 3.56%/yr |
| Price–rent divergence (value − rent growth) | 1.11%/yr |
| ZHVI, 1-bedroom | $173,476 |
| ZHVI, 2-bedroom | $206,336 |
| ZHVI, 3-bedroom | $251,553 |
| ZHVI, 4-bedroom | $277,503 |
| ZHVI, 5-bedroom | $292,147 |
Source: Zillow Economic Research public research data, observation month 2026-07. Zillow is not affiliated with, and does not endorse, Compounding Estates.
Typical home value $248,828
Median rent $1,425/mo
Population 276,854
Region Middle Atlantic
Price & rent history
Home value $75,879 → $248,828 (2000-01–2026-08) · Asking rent $801 → $1,425 (2015-01–2026-08)
Source: Zillow ZHVI (home value), quarterly from 2000-01, monthly from 2016-09 to 2026-08; Zillow ZORI (asking rent), quarterly from 2015-01, monthly from 2016-09 to 2026-08. Home value uses the left axis, rent the right; toggle either series, change the range, hover to read any point. Gaps in the source series are left as gaps - never interpolated.
ZIP markets in Buffalo
20 Census ZIP Codes (ZCTAs) officially overlap Buffalo by land area · 19 data-eligible for subscores. Overlap is Census land-area share, not a population or address share. Each ZIP Code's overall Rental Investor ZIP Score, grade and canonical national rank are shown below (the two component signals, affordability and rental market, are separate percentiles). There is no city-scoped ZIP rank: city overlap isn't a ranking universe, so only the national rank is shown. These ZIP rankings sit in the ZIP universe only, never mixed with, and not directly comparable to, Buffalo's city ranking. Vintage: the Key metric column below is Census ACS 2020–2024 (5-year), the same survey release as the figures used above for Buffalo itself; a city and a ZIP Code are different geographies, so the same measure can still show a different number at each level.
12 of 20 overlapping ZIP Code areas, scoredgrade, overall Rental Investor ZIP Score and national rank for each, on a separate model from this page's city scoreShow table
| ZIP Code | Overallgrade · natl rank | Tier · overlap | Affordabilitysignal · natl rank | Rental marketsignal · natl rank | Key metric |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14201Buffalo | D 34#15,485 nat | RankedPrimary | 33#16,474 of 20,132 · bottom 18% | 59#5,687 of 20,132 · top 28% | 3.7%Survey yield |
| 14202Buffalo | D 35#15,072 nat | RankedPrimary | 13#20,003 of 20,132 · bottom 1% | 68#2,669 of 20,132 · top 13% | 2.0%Survey yield |
| 14203Buffalo | — | ProfilePrimary | — | — | $1,331/moMedian rent |
| 14204Buffalo | D 42#12,539 nat | RankedPrimary | 64#4,485 of 20,132 · top 22% | 64#3,875 of 20,132 · top 19% | 6.7%Survey yield |
| 14208Buffalo | C 45#11,339 nat | RankedPrimary | 76#1,849 of 20,132 · top 9% | 62#4,789 of 20,132 · top 24% | 8.9%Survey yield |
| 14209Buffalo | D 32#16,185 nat | RankedPrimary | 32#16,689 of 20,132 · bottom 17% | 71#1,854 of 20,132 · top 9% | 3.2%Survey yield |
| 14213Buffalo | C 53#7,227 nat | RankedPrimary | 60#5,759 of 20,132 · top 29% | 78#491 of 20,132 · top 2% | 6.3%Survey yield |
| 14214Buffalo | C 44#11,835 nat | RankedPrimary | 51#8,857 of 20,132 · top 44% | 72#1,593 of 20,132 · top 8% | 5.6%Survey yield |
| 14216Buffalo | C 49#9,356 nat | RankedPrimary | 42#12,953 of 20,132 · bottom 36% | 62#4,569 of 20,132 · top 23% | 4.9%Survey yield |
| 14222Buffalo | C 45#11,075 nat | RankedPrimary | 23#18,896 of 20,132 · bottom 6% | 79#368 of 20,132 · top 2% | 3.5%Survey yield |
| 14210Buffalo | C 55#6,276 nat | RankedPrimary | 65#4,068 of 20,132 · top 20% | 80#231 of 20,132 · top 1% | 9.3%Survey yield |
| 14220Buffalo | C 48#9,725 nat | RankedPrimary | 61#5,450 of 20,132 · top 27% | 42#13,353 of 20,132 · bottom 34% | 6.8%Survey yield |
The honest read
Buffalo scores 45/100 overall (grade C): 54 for Cash Flow, 50 for Growth, and 32 for Stability, each a 0–100 score built from the factors in that category. The scenario above shows what a representative investor-entry purchase pencils out to at today's rates. Everything we can measure is in the table below, with its source.
Every factor, shown
The Overall score blends three category scores built from thirteen factors: Cash Flow (35%), Growth (35%), and Stability (30%). The tag on each percentile names the category a scored factor feeds; untagged rows are context, not scored. Each band chip restates that row's percentile in words. Every value carries its source and as-of date; a fallback source or imputed value is marked fallback. How the score works.
| Factor | Value | National percentile | Source · as-of | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense-adjusted yield | 3.4% | Above median65th percentile · Cash Flow | Zillow ZORI/ZHVI · 2026-08-31 | Annual rent divided by price, net of a modeled vacancy, tax, capex, and management allowance: the core of the Cash Flow category and what the score is actually computed from. The unadjusted gross yield is shown elsewhere on this page. |
| Price to income | 5.0x | Below median34th percentile · Cash Flow | Zillow + ACS income · 2026-08-31 | Home price over local median income. Lower is cheaper relative to what people earn. Part of the Cash Flow category. |
| Population growth | 0.3%/yr | Below median47th percentile · Growth | Census PEP · Census PEP 2020→2025 (vintage 2025) + Census PEP 2015→2025 (vintages 2019+2025) | Census population trend for the place, capped at 4.5%/yr before scoring (diminishing returns above that rate): the heaviest factor in the Growth category. |
| Job growth | 0.1%/yr | Below median28th percentile · Growth | BLS LAUS (county) · BLS LAUS county annual 2019→2025 (pre-COVID anchor; 2025 is an 11-month average) + BLS LAUS county annual 2015→2025 | County employment trend, capped at 4.0%/yr before scoring (diminishing returns above that rate). A Growth-category factor. |
| Income growth | 6.0%/yr | Above median67th percentile · Growth | Census ACS · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Local median-income trend. A Growth-category factor. |
| Rent growth | 4.6%/yr | Top quartile75th percentile · Growth | Zillow ZORI · 3yr + 10yr to 2026-08-31 | A 40/60 blend of 3-year and 10-year rent trend (the model's own weighting). A Growth-category factor. |
| Home-value growth | 7.6%/yr | Top 10%98th percentile · Growth | Zillow ZHVI · 3yr + 10yr to 2026-08-31 | A 40/60 blend of 3-year and 10-year price trend (the model's own weighting). A small Growth-category factor. |
| Violent crime | 729 /100k/yr | Bottom 10%4th percentile · Stability | FBI Crime Data Explorer · 2025 | Reported violent crimes per 100,000 residents a year (the FBI's monthly agency rates, times 12), from the municipal police department. Scored in Stability (weight 10 of its 30). City-level data cannot resolve within-neighborhood risk. |
| Property crime | 3,449 /100k/yr | Bottom 10%4th percentile · Stability | FBI Crime Data Explorer · 2025 | Reported property crimes per 100,000 residents a year. Scored in Stability (weight 3 of its 30). |
| Unemployment | 4.0% | Above median56th percentile · Stability | BLS LAUS (county) · BLS LAUS county annual 2025 (11-month average) | County unemployment rate. Lower is steadier, a Stability-category factor. |
| Rental vacancy | 4.3% | Above median61st percentile · Stability | Census ACS B25004 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Share of rentals empty. Lower means more pricing power. A Stability-category factor. |
| Property tax rate | 1.0% | Above median50th percentile · Stability | Census ACS B25103/B25077 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Median tax over median value. A direct drag on cash flow, scored in the Stability category as carrying-cost burden. |
| Months of supply | 4.5 mo | Bottom quartile22nd percentile · Stability | Redfin Data Center · 2026-05-01 | Listings over sales pace. Under about 4 is a seller market, over 6 a buyer market. A Stability-category factor. |
| Days on market | 21 days | Top quartile78th percentile | Redfin Data Center · 2026-05-01 | How fast homes sell. Lower means more liquidity and an easier exit. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 100.8% | Top quartile79th percentile | Redfin Data Center · 2026-05-01 | Sale price over asking. Above 100% means homes clear over ask. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Net domestic migration | -2.4/1k | Below median35th percentile | Census PEP (county) · PEP vintage 2025 | Net people moving in or out of the county, per 1,000 residents. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Building permits | 7.0/1k | Above median69th percentile | Census BPS (county) · BPS 2025 | New-construction permits per 1,000 homes. More means more supply coming. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Rent burden | 31% | Below median38th percentile | Census ACS B25071 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Median rent as a share of income. Higher means less headroom for increases. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Median year built | 1939 or earlier | Bottom 10%at or below the 3rd percentile | Census ACS B25035 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Age of the housing stock. Older stock carries more capex. Shown for context, not scored. The Census publishes this median only as "1939 or earlier", so its national percentile is the range a tie at the code allows: 103 other ranked cities carry the same code. |
| Max drawdown | 22% | Below median44th percentile | Zillow ZHVI · 2026-08-31 | Worst peak-to-trough home-value decline on record. Shown for context, not scored. |
- * Job growth and unemployment are county-level (BLS LAUS, county FIPS 36029); large multi-county cities inherit their dominant county’s figures.
- The Census Bureau publishes this city's median year built only as "1939 or earlier" (ACS table B25035): an open-ended range, not an estimate, which the data carries as the code 1938. This page shows it as "1939 or earlier", and its national percentile only as the range a tie at the code allows.
Where to go next from Buffalo
Every link below is this market's own data taken one step further: its neighbours in the ranking, the same numbers side by side, or the same numbers in a calculator you can change.
Nearby in the New York rankings, and national look-alikes
- Baldwinsville, NYGrade C · score 45/100 · yield 6.6% · $337,463 · #2,736 nationalZillow ZHVI $102k (2000) to $337k (2026), +231%
- Beacon, NYGrade C · score 45/100 · yield 5.7% · $569,645 · #2,770 nationalZillow ZHVI $121k (2000) to $570k (2026), +372%
- Port Jefferson, NYGrade C · score 44/100 · yield 5.4% · $788,766 · #2,854 nationalZillow ZHVI $446k (2012) to $789k (2026), +77%
- Depew, NYGrade C · score 44/100 · yield 7.3% · $273,403 · #2,860 nationalZillow ZHVI $89k (2000) to $273k (2026), +209%
- Massillon, OHGrade C · score 45/100 · yield 5.8% · $221,684 · #2,788 nationalZillow ZHVI $97k (2000) to $222k (2026), +129%
- Huntsville, TXGrade C · score 44/100 · yield 6.1% · $262,226 · #2,795 nationalZillow ZHVI $142k (2009) to $262k (2026), +85%
- Blacksburg, VAGrade C · score 45/100 · yield 5.0% · $416,520 · #2,789 nationalZillow ZHVI $134k (2000) to $417k (2026), +211%
Compare Buffalo head to head
- Buffalo vs Baldwinsville vs MassillonThe pre-filled matchup: nearest in-state rank and closest national grade.
- Buffalo vs Beacon, NYGrade C · yield 5.7%
- Buffalo vs Huntsville, TXGrade C · yield 6.1%
- Pick your own opponentAny of the 5,233 tracked cities.
Underwrite a Buffalo deal
- Cap rateOpens on Buffalo's own entry price and rent. Change either one.
- Cash flow & DSCRMonthly cash flow and DSCR, prefilled with this market's numbers.
- Mortgage paymentP&I on Buffalo's entry price at the assumptions shown above.
- All marketsCompare Buffalo against 4,812 ranked cities.
- New York ZIP CodesEvery New York ZIP Code area (Census ZCTAs), scored separately from the city rankings.
- Ranked listsSix lists, each with a disclosed entry rule.
- Where cash flow concentratesThe research behind why some states pair yield with growth and most don't.
Ranked lists: Highest yield · Cheapest vs. income · Rent covers the mortgage · Under $200k · Fastest-growing · Most stable
For learning, not advice. A market screen from public data - not a forecast, not underwriting, not a recommendation to buy anywhere.