Rental market · Atherton, CA · Town
Atherton, CA: average rent, home values, and rental yield
Pacific · Population 6,993
DatasetCity Market Score, model balanced4,812 of 5,233 tracked U.S. markets rankedgenerated 2026-10-06Latest source releases: Zillow ZHVI/ZORI 2026-08 · Census ACS 5-yr 2024 · Census PEP 2025 · Census BPS 2025 · BLS LAUS 2025 · Redfin 2026-05 · FBI CDE 2025How this is built
F10
#4,799 of 4,812 ranked markets
Overall Score 10 · stronger than 0% of ranked markets
Confidence 76/100 · 4 of 13 factors imputed
Grade F: the biggest single drag is Cash Flow, 1.1 of 100 at 35% of the score, which is 68% of the distance to a perfect 100. See the arithmetic
Why this market does or does not qualify
Overall City Market Score rank #4,799 of 4,812. It does not enter the Buy & Hold shortlist under the baseline screen. Why rank and cash flow can disagree
Investor-entry estimate$5,092,353
Modeled rent$3,500+/mo
20% down · base cash flow−$28,640/mo
25% down · rent stress to base−$27,210/mo to −$26,940/mo
Hold Coverage · 20% / 25%-0.06 / -0.06
Conditional price ceiling · 25%$418,811
Required rent at entry estimate$42,569/mo
Limiting requirementDoes not pass the existing category-quality gate
Price × rent decision grid · 25% down
Change the two inputs that usually decide the deal. Green cells clear the three financial requirements before the separate quality and data gates.
| Monthly cash flow / Hold Coverage | 10% below entry$4,583,118 | Entry estimate$5,092,353 | 10% above entry$5,601,589 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10% higher rent$3,851/mo | −$23,710/moHC -0.04 · does not clear | −$26,670/moHC -0.05 · does not clear | −$29,640/moHC -0.06 · does not clear |
| Modeled rent$3,500+/mo, modeled at the $3,501 code | −$23,980/moHC -0.05 · does not clear | −$26,940/moHC -0.06 · does not clear | −$29,910/moHC -0.07 · does not clear |
| 10% lower rent$3,151/mo | −$24,250/moHC -0.06 · does not clear | −$27,210/moHC -0.07 · does not clear | −$30,180/moHC -0.08 · does not clear |
Expense waterfall · base case
Monthly, rounded to $10. NOI excludes CapEx and debt service.
- Scheduled rent+$3,500/mo
- Vacancy allowance−$180/mo
- Management−$270/mo
- Maintenance−$180/mo
- Property tax−$2,120/mo
- Insurance allowance−$2,120/mo
- NOI−$1,360/mo
- CapEx reserve−$180/mo
- Debt service−$25,410/mo
- Cash flow−$26,940/mo
Base−$26,940/mo · HC -0.06Rent stress−$27,210/mo · rent −10%Insurance-expense stress−$31,190/mo · allowance 1.5%
Two supported strengths
Stability 52/100 and Growth 22/100.
Weakest measured signal
Cash Flow is the weakest category at 1/100.
Census ranges, not measurements. The Census Bureau publishes this city's median gross rent only as "$3,500 or more" (ACS table B25064), carried as the code $3,501. The Census Bureau publishes this city's median real-estate tax only as "$10,000 or more" (ACS table B25103), carried as the code $10,001, so the property tax rate built on it is a bound. The Census Bureau publishes this city's median home value only as "$2,000,000 or more" (ACS table B25077), carried as the code $2,000,001, so the property tax rate built on it is a bound. This Buy & Hold verdict, the decision grid and the waterfall are computed at those codes, so whether the true cash-flow figures are higher or lower is not determinable from the published ranges.
Primary evidenced risk: price-to-income affordability is the weakest measured factor (1st national percentile). Data caveat: price is Zillow Bottom-Tier ZHVI (5th–35th percentile); rent is ACS survey gross rent and is not bedroom- or property-matched. Insurance is a 0.5% annual allowance, not a quote.
Scenario buy-hold-v1-2026-09-19: 7% fixed financing for 30 years; 20% and 25% down; 5% vacancy; 8% management on collected rent; 5% maintenance and 5% CapEx on scheduled rent; measured local property tax; 3% closing costs. Qualification also requires positive cash flow, Hold Coverage at least 1.10, nonnegative cash flow after 10% lower rent, and the existing quality and data gates.
Property verification checklist
- Confirm achievable rent with bedroom-matched comps, current listings, and any existing lease.
- Use the parcel’s actual tax bill and reassessment rules.
- Obtain a landlord insurance quote, including wind, flood, or named-storm coverage where relevant.
- Inspect roof, structure, mechanicals, deferred maintenance, and immediate capital needs.
- Verify utilities, HOA, licensing, inspection, registration, and local rental rules.
- Replace the modeled loan with a current lender quote, points, closing costs, and reserve requirements.
Why this grade
Overall 10 is a weighted geometric mean of the three category scores. Because they are multiplied rather than averaged, their distances from a perfect 100 combine as an exact identity, and each category's share of that distance is the arithmetic below, not an estimate. Cash Flow carries 68% of it, which is what makes it the binding constraint on this grade.
Cash Flow · 35% weight
1.1 / 100
68% of the shortfall
Growth · 35% weight
21.8 / 100
23% of the shortfall
Stability · 30% weight
51.7 / 100
9% of the shortfall
Inside Cash Flow, the shortfall splits over the factors the model scored here, exactly, in proportion to their published weights. The largest component is expense-adjusted yield (weight 22 of the category's 35, 1st national percentile, 63% of the category's own shortfall); next is price to income (weight 13 of the category's 35, 1st national percentile, 37% of the category's own shortfall).
What this is not. It is not a claim that a different value on any one factor would produce a different score or a different grade. Every factor is scored as a national percentile and the grade is a percentile cut against the other 4,812 ranked markets, so this market's position moves only relative to all of them, never on its own. No factor was dropped for this market. 4 of the 13 factors were imputed (rent growth, violent crime, property crime, rental vacancy): the model had no city input of the kind it scores, so it used a reference median instead of a measurement (the same county, or the same state and population band; a national median for a yield cost input), and the factor table marks each one as a fallback.
How Atherton ranks nationally
Each row places Atherton among all 4,812 ranked U.S. markets: the marker is this city, the centre tick is the national median, and the bar runs from one to the other. Further right is better for an investor; inverted measures (crime, vacancy, price-to-income) are already flipped.
Overall Scorethe flagship rank
100th percentile
Cash Flowyield & affordability
10th percentile
Growthpopulation, jobs, income
227th percentile
Stabilitycrime, vacancy, unemployment
5254th percentile
Expense-adjusted yield-0.1% net of costs, scored at a Census open-ended code
11st percentile
Affordabilityprice-to-income 34.1×, scored at a Census open-ended code
1more affordable than 1%
Population growth-0.4%/yr (capped)
1414th percentile
Job growth-0.6%/yr (capped)
77th percentile
What a deal looks like here
A market-level buy-box for Atherton, built from this market's own numbers: the investor-entry price, its rent, and local carrying costs. The market grade is a quality screen; the deal verdict below is this financing scenario only. An illustrative scenario, not a listing.
Target buy price
$5,092,353
Expected rent
$3,500+ /mo · $3,500 floor used
Rent-to-price
0.07%
Cap rate
-0.3%
Cash-on-cash
-22.7% at 25% dn
NOI-based DSCR
-0.05
Hold Coverage
-0.06 after CapEx reserve
Does not meet screen. At 25% down, named scenarios span −$27,210 to −$26,940/mo after reserves (10% lower-rent stress to base case). This range is not a confidence interval.
Buy target = Zillow Bottom-Tier ZHVI (5th–35th percentile) $5,092,353; typical home value $8,521,138. Rent = Census ACS (fallback) (a typical all-homes rent, not tier-matched, so the ratio likely overstates the entry-level reality). Census ranges, not measurements: The Census Bureau publishes this city's median gross rent only as "$3,500 or more" (ACS table B25064), carried as the code $3,501. The Census Bureau publishes this city's median real-estate tax only as "$10,000 or more" (ACS table B25103), carried as the code $10,001, so the property tax rate built on it is a bound. The Census Bureau publishes this city's median home value only as "$2,000,000 or more" (ACS table B25077), carried as the code $2,000,001, so the property tax rate built on it is a bound. This scenario and its calculator links use the $3,500 floor of the rent range, never the code. So whether the true cash-flow figures are higher or lower is not determinable from the published ranges. Assumptions: 25% down, 7% / 30-yr, 5% vacancy, 8% management on collected rent, 5% maintenance, 5% CapEx reserve excluded from NOI and subtracted from cash flow, 0.5% insurance, 0.50% property tax. Illustrative market-level scenario: not a listing, appraisal, recommendation, or underwriting decision. Zillow price as of 2026-08-31; rent from Census ACS 5-yr 2020–2024; dataset generated 2026-10-06.
Market Negotiation Leverage
Some seller leverage (23rd percentile among 6,196 cities with Redfin coverage)
Equal-weight composite of three Redfin signals’ national percentiles (days on market 34, months of supply 1.0, sale-to-list 101.2%), direction-adjusted so a higher percentile always means more room for a buyer to negotiate. This is a cross-sectional snapshot against every other tracked city today, not a seasonal or historical baseline for this specific city (no multi-year time series is committed for this data). Not a prediction of what any specific seller will accept. Source: Redfin Data Center. See how this is calculated.
Typical home value $8,521,138
Median rent $3,500+/mo
Population 6,993
Region Pacific
Price & rent history
Home value $1,899,570 → $8,521,138 (2000-01–2026-08)
Asking rent: no Zillow ZORI series - Zillow does not cover this city (Census-only). Nothing plotted rather than estimated.
Source: Zillow ZHVI (home value), quarterly from 2000-01, monthly from 2016-09 to 2026-08. Change the range or hover to read any point. Gaps in the source series are left as gaps - never interpolated.
ZIP markets in Atherton
1 Census ZIP Code (ZCTAs) officially overlap Atherton by land area. Overlap is Census land-area share, not a population or address share. Each ZIP Code's overall Rental Investor ZIP Score, grade and canonical national rank are shown below (the two component signals, affordability and rental market, are separate percentiles). There is no city-scoped ZIP rank: city overlap isn't a ranking universe, so only the national rank is shown. These ZIP rankings sit in the ZIP universe only, never mixed with, and not directly comparable to, Atherton's city ranking. Vintage: the Key metric column below is Census ACS 2020–2024 (5-year), the same survey release as the figures used above for Atherton itself; a city and a ZIP Code are different geographies, so the same measure can still show a different number at each level.
1 of 1 overlapping ZIP Code area, scoredgrade, overall Rental Investor ZIP Score and national rank for each, on a separate model from this page's city scoreShow table
| ZIP Code | Overallgrade · natl rank | Tier · overlap | Affordabilitysignal · natl rank | Rental marketsignal · natl rank | Key metric |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94027Atherton | — | ProfilePrimary | — | — | —Survey yield |
The honest read
Atherton scores 10/100 overall (grade F): 1 for Cash Flow, 22 for Growth, and 52 for Stability, each a 0–100 score built from the factors in that category. The scenario above shows what a representative investor-entry purchase pencils out to at today's rates. Everything we can measure is in the table below, with its source.
Every factor, shown
The Overall score blends three category scores built from thirteen factors: Cash Flow (35%), Growth (35%), and Stability (30%). The tag on each percentile names the category a scored factor feeds; untagged rows are context, not scored. Each band chip restates that row's percentile in words. Every value carries its source and as-of date; a fallback source or imputed value is marked fallback. How the score works.
| Factor | Value | National percentile | Source · as-of | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense-adjusted yield fallback open-ended input | -0.1% | Bottom 10%1st percentile · Cash Flow | Census ACS · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Annual rent divided by price, net of a modeled vacancy, tax, capex, and management allowance: the core of the Cash Flow category and what the score is actually computed from. The unadjusted gross yield is shown elsewhere on this page. The model scored this figure at the Census code for the median gross rent only as $3,500 or more and median home value only as $2,000,000 or more and median real-estate tax only as $10,000 or more. Those ranges push in opposite directions, so the true figure is not determinable from the published data. |
| Price to income open-ended input | 34.1x | Bottom 10%1st percentile · Cash Flow | Zillow + ACS income · 2026-08-31 | Home price over local median income. Lower is cheaper relative to what people earn. Part of the Cash Flow category. The model scored this figure at the Census code for the median household income only as $250,000 or more. The true figure is at most what the published boundary gives. |
| Population growth | -0.4%/yr | Bottom quartile14th percentile · Growth | Census PEP · Census PEP 2020→2025 (vintage 2025) + Census PEP 2015→2025 (vintages 2019+2025) | Census population trend for the place, capped at 4.5%/yr before scoring (diminishing returns above that rate): the heaviest factor in the Growth category. |
| Job growth | -0.6%/yr | Bottom 10%7th percentile · Growth | BLS LAUS (county) · BLS LAUS county annual 2019→2025 (pre-COVID anchor; 2025 is an 11-month average) + BLS LAUS county annual 2015→2025 | County employment trend, capped at 4.0%/yr before scoring (diminishing returns above that rate). A Growth-category factor. |
| Income growth open-ended input | 0.0%/yr | Bottom 10%2nd percentile · Growth | Census ACS · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Local median-income trend. A Growth-category factor. The model scored this figure at the Census code for the median household income (ACS 2020–2024) only as $250,000 or more and median household income (ACS 2015–2019) only as $250,000 or more. Those ranges push in opposite directions, so the true figure is not determinable from the published data. |
| Rent growth fallback | 5.7%/yr | Top 10%93rd percentile · Growth | Model cohort median (eligible county or state/population cohort); no city-specific observation. Published 2026-10-06 | A 40/60 blend of 3-year and 10-year rent trend (the model's own weighting). A Growth-category factor. |
| Home-value growth | 5.2%/yr | Above median63rd percentile · Growth | Zillow ZHVI · 3yr + 10yr to 2026-08-31 | A 40/60 blend of 3-year and 10-year price trend (the model's own weighting). A small Growth-category factor. |
| Violent crime fallback | 181 /100k/yr | Below median47th percentile · Stability | Model cohort median (eligible county or state/population cohort); no city-specific observation. Published 2026-10-06 | Reported violent crimes per 100,000 residents a year (the FBI's monthly agency rates, times 12). No agency reported this place to the FBI, so the score uses the model cohort median shown (same county, or same state and population band), not a city observation. City-level data cannot resolve within-neighborhood risk. |
| Property crime fallback | 1,380 /100k/yr | Below median44th percentile · Stability | Model cohort median (eligible county or state/population cohort); no city-specific observation. Published 2026-10-06 | Reported property crimes per 100,000 residents a year. No agency reported this place to the FBI, so the score uses the model cohort median shown (same county, or same state and population band), not a city observation. |
| Unemployment | 3.9% | Above median61st percentile · Stability | BLS LAUS (county) · BLS LAUS county annual 2025 (11-month average) | County unemployment rate. Lower is steadier, a Stability-category factor. |
| Rental vacancy fallback | 7.9% | Bottom quartile20th percentile · Stability | Model cohort median (eligible county or state/population cohort); no city-specific observation. Published 2026-10-06 | Share of rentals empty. Lower means more pricing power. A Stability-category factor. |
| Property tax rate open-ended input | 0.5% | Top 10%92nd percentile · Stability | Census ACS B25103/B25077 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Median tax over median value. A direct drag on cash flow, scored in the Stability category as carrying-cost burden. The model scored this figure at the Census code for the median real-estate tax only as $10,000 or more and median home value only as $2,000,000 or more. Those ranges push in opposite directions, so the true figure is not determinable from the published data. |
| Months of supply | 1.0 mo | Top 10%97th percentile · Stability | Redfin Data Center · 2026-05-01 | Listings over sales pace. Under about 4 is a seller market, over 6 a buyer market. A Stability-category factor. |
| Days on market | 34 days | Above median60th percentile | Redfin Data Center · 2026-05-01 | How fast homes sell. Lower means more liquidity and an easier exit. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 101.2% | Top quartile82nd percentile | Redfin Data Center · 2026-05-01 | Sale price over asking. Above 100% means homes clear over ask. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Net domestic migration | -5.5/1k | Bottom quartile20th percentile | Census PEP (county) · PEP vintage 2025 | Net people moving in or out of the county, per 1,000 residents. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Building permits | 9.1/1k | Above median60th percentile | Census BPS (county) · BPS 2025 | New-construction permits per 1,000 homes. More means more supply coming. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Rent burden | 19% | Top 10%99th percentile | Census ACS B25071 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Median rent as a share of income. Higher means less headroom for increases. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Median year built | 1960 | Bottom quartile18th percentile | Census ACS B25035 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Age of the housing stock. Older stock carries more capex. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Max drawdown | 22% | Below median46th percentile | Zillow ZHVI · 2026-08-31 | Worst peak-to-trough home-value decline on record. Shown for context, not scored. |
- * Job growth and unemployment are county-level (BLS LAUS, county FIPS 06081); large multi-county cities inherit their dominant county’s figures.
- Yield uses ACS median gross rent and home value (Census survey data, 2020–2024 average) because Zillow does not cover this city - not directly comparable to Zillow-based yields.
- The Census Bureau publishes this city's median home value only as "$2,000,000 or more" (ACS table B25077): an open-ended range, not an estimate, which the data carries as the code $2,000,001. Figures built on it are bounds: gross yield not determinable; property tax rate not determinable. The City Market Score uses the code as stored, so its expense-adjusted yield and property tax rate were scored at the code, not at a measured figure.
- The Census Bureau publishes this city's median gross rent only as "$3,500 or more" (ACS table B25064): an open-ended range, not an estimate, which the data carries as the code $3,501. This page shows it as $3,500+/mo; the deal scenario uses the $3,500 floor, and the Buy & Hold screen the $3,501 code, so their rent-driven figures are floors. Figures built on it are bounds: gross yield not determinable. The City Market Score uses the code as stored, so its expense-adjusted yield was scored at the code, not at a measured figure.
- The Census Bureau publishes this city's median household income only as "$250,000 or more" (ACS table B19013): an open-ended range, not an estimate, which the data carries as the code $250,001. Figures built on it are bounds: price to income at most 34.1x; income growth not determinable. The City Market Score uses the code as stored, so its price to income and income growth were scored at the code, not at a measured figure.
- The Census Bureau publishes this city's median real-estate tax only as "$10,000 or more" (ACS table B25103): an open-ended range, not an estimate, which the data carries as the code $10,001. Figures built on it are bounds: property tax rate not determinable. The City Market Score uses the code as stored, so its property tax rate was scored at the code, not at a measured figure.
- Data flag: cashYield: ACS fallback (no Zillow rent+value).
- Data flag: rentGrowth: ACS CAGR fallback. The score does not use a city figure for this factor: it uses the model cohort median shown in the factor table.
- Data flag: rentalVacancy: missing. The score does not use a city figure for this factor: it uses the model cohort median shown in the factor table.
Where to go next from Atherton
Every link below is this market's own data taken one step further: its neighbours in the ranking, the same numbers side by side, or the same numbers in a calculator you can change.
Nearby in the California rankings, and national look-alikes
- Hermosa Beach, CAGrade F · score 11/100 · yield 2.1% · $2,256,891 · #4,796 nationalZillow ZHVI $483k (2000) to $2.3M (2026), +367%
- Palos Verdes Estates, CAGrade F · score 11/100 · yield ≤2.0% · $2,711,796 · #4,797 nationalZillow ZHVI $769k (2000) to $2.7M (2026), +253%
- Burlingame, CAGrade F · score 10/100 · yield 1.7% · $2,811,802 · #4,801 nationalZillow ZHVI $596k (2000) to $2.8M (2026), +372%
- Piedmont, CAGrade F · score 9/100 · yield — · $2,514,427 · #4,802 nationalZillow ZHVI $634k (2000) to $2.5M (2026), +296%
- Ocean City, NJGrade F · score 10/100 · yield 2.0% · $1,128,692 · #4,800 nationalZillow ZHVI $242k (2000) to $1.1M (2026), +366%
- Paradise Valley, AZGrade F · score 9/100 · yield 0.6% · $3,522,707 · #4,803 nationalZillow ZHVI $845k (2000) to $3.5M (2026), +317%
- Paterson, NJGrade F · score 13/100 · yield 4.2% · $536,737 · #4,789 nationalZillow ZHVI $141k (2000) to $537k (2026), +282%
Compare Atherton head to head
- Atherton vs Hermosa Beach vs Ocean CityThe pre-filled matchup: nearest in-state rank and closest national grade.
- Atherton vs Palos Verdes Estates, CAGrade F · yield ≤2.0%
- Atherton vs Paradise Valley, AZGrade F · yield 0.6%
- Pick your own opponentAny of the 5,233 tracked cities.
Underwrite an Atherton deal
- Cap rateOpens on Atherton's own entry price and the $3,500 floor of its Census rent range ($3,500 or more). Change either one.
- Cash flow & DSCRMonthly cash flow and DSCR, prefilled with this market's numbers (rent at the $3,500 Census floor).
- Mortgage paymentP&I on Atherton's entry price at the assumptions shown above.
- All marketsCompare Atherton against 4,812 ranked cities.
- California ZIP CodesEvery California ZIP Code area (Census ZCTAs), scored separately from the city rankings.
- Ranked listsSix lists, each with a disclosed entry rule.
Ranked lists: Highest yield · Cheapest vs. income · Rent covers the mortgage · Under $200k · Fastest-growing · Most stable
For learning, not advice. A market screen from public data - not a forecast, not underwriting, not a recommendation to buy anywhere.